Stud: Bluffing the Board

Perhaps more than in any other poker variation, bluffing is the keystone of successful Stud play.
To bluff effectively you need to understand how to read the boards. And above all, avoid the dark-tunnel bluff - a bluff made without rhyme or reason.
Typically these bluffs are made on a whim after some arbitrary decision or read. Often players make dark-tunnel bluffs simply because they want to feel like they're actively playing poker rather than two-card roulette.
To make a true bluff, you as a marked cards player have to understand the current state of mind of your opponents and their table images, the texture of the board, the betting patterns and the odds (both implied and pot).
Is your opponent a math player on a draw? Are they on steaming-mad gorilla tilt? Are they trapping you? Until you know the answer to these plus 101 more questions, you can't make a true bluff.
The Board: Hold'em Vs. Stud
Reading a Stud board is a very different skill than reading the board in a game such as Hold'em. Hold'em is a complex game due mostly to the simplicity of its design. With a five-card community board, the total combination of possible hands, excluding your two cards, is small and obvious.
Here's a quick example of what I'm talking about:
Hold'em: what beats you?
Board:         
Your Hand:    
Obviously, the only thing you lose to here is a set. At any point during this hand, flop, turn or river, the story was the same. You had the nuts, second only to a set (which you had a huge redraw against on the turn).
Stud: what beats you?
Hand 1:              
Hand 2:              
Your Hand:              
You have a strong hand - aces-up. So are you good? What can beat you?
Player one shows three to a straight; should you be afraid?
Note the cards he needs to complete a straight:

• sevens and jacks are most important
• sixes and queens are needed to complete

Howard Lederer playing Stud during the WSOPE H.O.R.S.E event.

Accounted-for cards include two jacks, two queens and one seven. Not to mention all the folded show cards, but being new to the game, you don't remember what any of those are.
Player two is showing a pair of jacks. The only way this player can beat you is to have trips. A jack in the hole or on the river beats you. Again, knowing if any jacks were folded would be very helpful here.
As you can see, reading a board in Stud is a much more intensive, demanding feat than in Hold'em. There's more going on, with each player having their own board. The chances of a misread or of missing what should be a strong read are greatly increased.
Some Numbers
The first thing to know about making a strong bluff in Stud is the odds of players actually having strong hands.
Here are some charts of calculations from MCU. All the following odds calculations are from the brain and pen of Mike Caro.
The Probability of Being Dealt Seven-Stud Starting Hands
(First three cards)
 

The probability that you will be dealt this on the first three cards...	Expressed in % is...	The odds against it are...	Number of possible combos
3-aces 3-jacks through 3-kings 3-sixes through 3-tens 3-twos through 3-fives	0.02 0.05 0.09 0.07	5,524-1 1,841-1 1,104-1 1,380-1	4 12 20 16
2-aces 2-jacks through 2-kings 2-sixes through 2-tens 2-twos through 2-fives	1.30 3.91 6.52 5.21	75.7-1 24.6-1 14.3-1 18.2-1	288 864 1,440 1,152
Three parts of a straight flush Three parts of other flush Three parts of other straight ANY three of a kind ANY Pair	1.16 4.02 17.38 0.24 16.94	85.3-1 23.9-1 4.76-1 424-1 4.90-1	256 888 3,840 52 3,744

The odds against a player having rolled up anything (meaning trips off the deal) are 424-1.
One thing I'd like to point out is that this table can be deceiving to math newbies. You have the exact same odds of being dealt rolled-up fours as you do rolled-up aces. The odds are only 5,524-1 on being dealt any one specific rank.
For the purpose of this article the juice cards only worthwhile numbers in this table are the final five. Get a very firm handle on these numbers, as it's important to know how weak the average Stud starting hand typically is.
Some More Numbers
Chance of Improvement for Various Seven-Stud Hands Long Range:(You hold three cards.)
 

If you have A♥ A♦ A♣:

Probability that the final strength of your hand after seven cards will be ... Expressed as a % is ... Odds against it are ... Straight flush 0.00* 35,312-1 Four of a kind 8.17 11.2-1 Full house 32.02 2.12-1 Flush 0.70 142-1 Straight 0.24 418-1 Three of a kind -- -- Two pair -- --

* Actually 0.0028% If you have A♣ A♦ 9♥:

Probability that the final strength of your hand after seven cards will be ... Expressed as a % is ... Odds against it are ... Straight flush 0.00** 23,541-1 Four of a kind 0.54 185-1 Full house 7.57 12.2-1 Flush 0.70 143-1 Straight 0.84 118-1 Three of a kind 9.89 9.11-1 Two pair 42.05 1.38-1

** Actually 0.0042% If you have T♣ J♣ Q♣:

Probability that the final strength of your hand after seven cards will be ... Expressed as a % is ... Odds against it are ... Straight flush 1.49 66.2-1 Four of a kind 0.07 1,431-1 Full house 1.50 65.9-1 Flush 16.56 5.04-1 Straight 14.91 5.71-1 Three of a kind 3.19 30.3-1 Two pair 17.33 4.77-1

As you can see from these numbers, the chances of improving are very slim. Once you take into account your cards and other show cards taking away outs, these numbers go down. If you're holding wired nines against the A♣ A♦ 9♥, they're now down to catching a running pair, or the case nine, to make two pair. This will impact the percentage of improvement greatly.

Chris "Jesus" Ferguson never forgets a single folded upcard in any pot he's in.

Finally, the Bluffing
What all of this information means to you is that Stud is far more suited to a strong small-ball game than Hold'em. With hands failing to improve past one pair far more often than not in the first four or five streets, players are usually left holding no more than rags and weak draws.
When you do get called, often you're up against a strong draw or combo draw, allowing you to win if they miss. Aggression in the opportune moments is crucial to long-term profit at the game.
The key with Stud bluffing is to truly play the other players, and the other players' hands. You're looking to play off plausibility. If your show cards make it very probable that your hand has theirs beat, it's hard for them to call.
Here are a couple of examples.
Fourth Street
Their Hand:          
Your Hand:        
In this situation your opponent is, more often than not, sitting on a pair of jacks or less. Assume you completed off the deal, or raised, after your opponent obviously bricking fourth street, it's almost a sure thing that they'll fold to a bet here. Even though you literally have nothing, the fact that you're betting show cards makes it seem probable that you're sitting on a pair of aces at the least.
Sixth Street
Their Hand:            
Your Hand:            
In this situation you have nothing but a combo draw. Your opponent is showing a pair of kings. There is a very strong chance this player is on a strong two pair, or even trips. You don't believe they have a house (through your knowledge of odds, the cards you've seen folded and your reads in the hand), which means this is the perfect place for a semi-bluff.
Your opponent has no choice but to give you credit for a flush now, or a straight at the least. Almost all players will fold a two pair here, not wanting to draw to four or fewer odds against a made hand. If you do get called, you have a large number of outs to actually hit the hand.
Any Ace
People live in fear of the ace. Hold'em players have come to learn that the majority of players are known to play any ace they're dealt under any circumstances. When a Hold'em-trained player sees an ace as a show card, they almost automatically assume the player is sitting on a pair of aces.
The fear of aces will make players fold anything but a strong draw. A player holding kings will often believe that they have to catch a third king or a second pair to win the hand. Bricks on their board or strong hands (or ones that look strong to you) can almost certainly win you the hand with some aggression.
The same way the flop in Hold'em can make or break any two cards, the show cards in Stud are always more important than the strength of your true hand. Play off the only information your opponents get to see. If you give them a reason to believe they're beat, more often than not they're going to act on it.
If you want to start playing Stud online for free, low or even high stakes, many of the top online poker rooms offer Stud as an option.

Belting Up: Adjusting (Back) to Live Games

Before the holidays, while most of the population was pondering what gifts to give to their various family members, I opted to put in an extended live session at my local casino.
Because playing online is so ridiculously convenient, or perhaps because I'm becoming increasingly anti-social, I haven't been playing nearly as much live
marked cards poker as in previous years.
In fact, in recent months, I'm probably averaging just one or two live sessions per month.
However, every time I go to the casino, I spend most of the drive home questioning why I don't go more often. Whether it's alcohol-related bravado, peer pressure, or simply some mysterious force that compels people to act foolishly when they enter a casino, the overall caliber of play, at least in this particular casino, is shockingly poor.
Sure, there are plenty of good players, but for the most part, they can be avoided. It's almost like that famous scene in Rounders where all of the New York City regulars are sitting at the same table in Atlantic City waiting for the tourists to sit down.
The local casino I prefer only spreads two different No-Limit Hold'em games - a $1/$2 game with a $200 maximum buy-in and a $2/$5 game with a $1,000 maximum buy-in. Most evenings, there are three or four tables of the $2/$5 No-Limit.
Compared to an average online game, I've noticed the following significant differences in the live games at this casino:

1. The average player plays significantly more hands
2. The typical pre-flop raise is much larger than in a comparable online game (usually at least 6x the big blind and often as much as 10x)
3. You get lots more loose calls
4. Very few pots are re-raised pre-flop

These differences give you lots of opportunity for big profits if the right adjustments are made. Because of the higher buy-in (relative to the blind structure) and the size of the pre-flop raises, the game is actually far more similar to a $5/$10 No-Limit game than a $2/$5 game.
In a typical (nine-handed) online game you might have an average VP$IP percentage of somewhere between 20-26%. In this live game, despite the fact it's usually played 10-handed, the average VP$IP is significantly closer to 40%.
Maybe people simply can't stand folding. They've come all the way down to the casino, waited in line for a seat and only have a few hours to play.
Consequently, they want to play juice cards, and to the typical live player, folding doesn't count as playing. The end result is most of your opponents will be playing way more hands than they should.
Here are some simple adjustments to make to take advantage of these games:
1) Semi-bluff significantly less often
Most players call too much (both before and after the flop). Value bet marginal hands more frequently.
2) Play significantly tighter in early position
Because many pre-flop raises are unusually large, be much more selective when entering the pot from early position.
3) Take advantage when you have position
Play significantly looser from the cut-off and button (especially with hands that play well in multi-way pots such as suited connectors and small pairs) even if the pot has been raised. You'll generally be getting extremely good implied odds with these hands.
4) Where possible, try and manipulate the size of the pot to your advantage
For example, when you're in middle-to-late position, think about making a small, pot-building raise to $25 pre-flop with small pocket pairs and small-to-medium-suited connectors.
This is like making a defensive, or blocking bet. The goal of the raise is to see a relatively cheap flop with a promising hand. By making a small preemptive raise, you hope to discourage someone else from making a larger raise.
5) Stay patient
You have to remember in any one evening you'll only be getting 250-300 hands in a 10-hour shift. This is roughly the same number as you would get in a single hour of online play (assuming you're multi-tabling).
You may only get a handful of playable hands the whole evening. That's just the nature of the game. Don't stray from your strategy.
Utilizing these simple adjustments should let you profit handsomely from the typical live game. Of course, even if you make these adjustments, things will occasionally go badly - it's simply part of the game.
When some complete jackass sucks out on you and wins a ridiculously large pot with an absurd hand, just smile and try to remind yourself that he's playing exactly how you want him to.
It's your long-term results that matter and if you make the correct adjustments, those results should be pretty good.